Per il Giappone l’Ultima Chance?

NEW HAVEN – Il Giappone rappresenta il “terreno di coltura” ideale per la lotta contro la stagnazione del secolo, che oggi attanaglia la maggior parte delle principali economie sviluppate. Ma, nonostante tutto il clamore che circonda l’ “Abenomics”, l’economia giapponese rimane moribonda. Negli ultimi diciotto mesi del mandato del primo ministro Shinzo Abe, la crescita del PIL in termini reali su base annua ha registrato una media di appena l’1,4% - solo leggermente superiore all’anemica media del 1% post 1992.

L’Abenomics, con la sua potenzialmente vigorosa combinazione di incentivi monetari e fiscali, associati ad una vasta gamma di riforme strutturali, doveva porre termine ai “decenni perduti” del Giappone. Tutte e tre le “frecce” della strategia erano destinate a risollevare l’economia da un quindicennio di pantano deflazionistico.

Purtroppo, non sono state scoccate tutte le frecce. La Banca del Giappone (BOJ) sembra sulla buona strada per portare a segno la prima – con l’adozione di quella misura che definisce allentamento quantitativo e qualitativo (QQE). Le azioni di politica monetaria della BOJ in funzione del PIL potrebbero effettivamente superare di gran lunga gli sforzi della Federal Reserve degli Stati Uniti.

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