日本的最后机会?

纽黑文—日本是目前令大部分主要发达国家心弦紧绷的长期停滞斗争的老根据地。而尽管围绕“安倍经济学”的标榜不绝于耳,但日本经济依然毫无活力。在安倍最新首相任期的前六个季度里,年化真实GDP增长平均只有1.4%——只比1992年以来长期低迷的总平均水平1%略高。

安倍结合了潜力巨大的货币和财政刺激,并辅之以范围广泛的结构性改革,理应结束日本“失去的几十年”。安倍战略的所有三支“箭”都指向一个目标——让日本经济从15年的通缩泥淖中解脱出来。

不幸的是,并非三支箭都能飞起来。日本银行的第一支箭射得还不错——采取了它所谓的量化和定性宽松(QQE)。相对于GDP而言,日本银行的货币政策头炮可以说打得比美联储还要响。

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