emission cuts by country

Un criterio numérico para la reducción de emisiones

CAMBRIDGE – De las conversaciones en Beijing entre los presidentes estadounidense, Barack Obama, y chino, Xi Jinping (líderes de los dos países que emiten más dióxido de carbono), salió un avance inesperado: un acuerdo bilateral para la reducción de gases de efecto invernadero. El nuevo acuerdo estipula que de aquí a 2025, Estados Unidos reducirá sus emisiones entre 26 y 28% respecto de los niveles de 2005, mientras que China deberá empezar a reducir las suyas a más tardar en 2030. A falta de un tratado internacional vinculante, estos compromisos unilaterales o bilaterales de algunos países para reducir su aporte al calentamiento global son nuestra mejor esperanza de resolver el cambio climático.

El Protocolo de Kioto (1997) fue un gran avance en el intento de adelantarse a las consecuencias más desastrosas del cambio climático, y sentó un precedente para la adopción de límites de emisión legalmente vinculantes. Pero le faltó el compromiso de grandes países en vías de desarrollo, como China y la India, y eso determinó en gran medida que Estados Unidos nunca lo ratificara.

Un sistema abierto, donde cada país se comprometa unilateralmente a cumplir metas de reducción de sus emisiones, puede ayudar a generar confianza y preparar el camino para una ampliación del Protocolo de Kioto (que muchos esperan que se elabore en la Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre Cambio Climático de 2015 en París). Pero para que el sistema funcione, se necesita una idea consensuada de lo que es justo pedir a cada país. Esto permitiría a activistas e investigadores analizar el desempeño de cada uno y poner en evidencia a los incumplidores.

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