Yaorusheng/Getty Images

Por qué las ciudades chinas impulsarán el crecimiento global

SHANGHAI – Por quince años, China ha sido un motor clave del crecimiento global. Pero ahora que el auge chino basado en las inversiones quedó atrás, la continuidad del crecimiento económico (en China y todo el mundo) dependerá de los consumidores urbanos chinos. En 2030, los habitantes de las ciudades impulsarán el 91% del incremento global del consumo; hoy China está poniendo el acento tanto en la urbanización cuanto en volcar hacia el consumo su modelo de crecimiento.

Una nueva investigación del McKinsey Global Institute da motivos para confiar en que la estrategia de China funcionará. El MGI (del que la coautora de este artículo es socia) prevé un aumento continuo en la cantidad de consumidores urbanos y en su nivel de ingresos, y predice que 700 ciudades chinas generarán siete billones de dólares, o sea el 30%, del crecimiento del consumo urbano global de aquí a 2030.

Hoy, China tiene 521 millones de consumidores urbanos en edad de trabajar; en sólo quince años, serán 628 millones. Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai y Shenzhen añadirán cada una más de un millón de hogares con un ingreso anual superior a 70 000 dólares (la cantidad que hay hoy con ese nivel de ingresos en Hong Kong). El gasto per cápita saltará de 4800 dólares a 10 700 dólares en 2030; en ese momento, los consumidores chinos en edad de trabajar gastarán 12 centavos de cada dólar de consumo urbano en todo el mundo.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in

  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now