Two children in China

中国的二孩消费引擎

伦敦——去年10月中国终止实施独生子女政策标志着37年偏离历史轨道的结束,上述偏离导致该国的人口老龄化进程提前了数十年。政府严格控制人口的社会和经济影响导致城市家庭平均生育率从20世纪70年代的户均三个下降到1982年的一个多一点,并造成了引人注目的经济后果。现在的问题是国家新的二胎政策能否、以及能在多大程度上缓解这样的后果。

事实上,二孩政策的影响可能同样深远——而且总体而言其积极影响可能远超独生子女政策。长远来看影响尤其如此,但即使在较短期限内其影响也是显而易见的。关键原因之一是单个家庭子女数量的增加将迫使民众降低总体储蓄率,从而实现长期的宏观经济目标。

中国目前储蓄率高到常被指造成全球失衡及拉低全球利率的后果。此外,高储蓄率还阻碍了中国完成从出口导向型增长模式向以国内消费服务为主模式的过渡。二孩政策在推动上述转型方面或许必不可少——上述进程的开始可能比多数观察家的预测更为迅速。

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