Chinese sculptures

La crisis de la mala comunicación de China

SHANGHÁI – En un foro en Canberra el año pasado, Andrew Sheng dijo en broma "China es transparente, pero sólo en el sentido chino". La declaración provocó risas entre quienes consideran opacos los procesos de toma de decisiones de China; pero fueron risas generadas por la certeza de que Sheng tenía razón. En el período previo a una decisión política importante en China, los editoriales de las autoridades de alto rango en las principales publicaciones, así como los informes y comunicados de foros y reuniones oficiales, casi siempre ofrecen pistas sobre lo que irá a suceder. Uno sólo tiene que saber cómo leerlos.

Esto es más fácil de decir que de hacer, al menos para los medios extranjeros, cuyos esfuerzos por anticipar las medidas políticas de China han generado mucha frustración -y hasta acusaciones de que la toma de decisiones china es sigilosa e impredecible-. Este esfuerzo quizás hoy resulte más evidente en las discusiones sobre el tipo de cambio de China.

Muchos inversores interpretaron la inesperada devaluación del renminbi en un 1,9% frente al dólar estadounidense en agosto pasado -la primera caída luego de años de apreciación constante- como un último recurso por parte del Banco Popular de China (PBOC) para prevenir una crisis económica. En consecuencia, supusieron que era apenas el comienzo de una depreciación prolongada inducida por la política monetaria. Como resultado de ello, una ola de inversores se desprendieron del renminbi, alimentaron la volatilidad del tipo de cambio e impulsaron un marcado incremento de las salidas de capital.

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