Chinese sculptures

一场被误解的危机

在去年堪培拉的一个论坛上,Andrew Sheng在回应某些人质疑中国的决策不透明时曾风趣地说:“中国是透明的,只是在中文意义上”。这一回答引发了听众的笑声,但的确也是事实。如果你懂中文并能每天关注中文的媒体,你的确发现,你想知道的东西基本都在那了。但这些东西未必总是明说,需要你去揣摩与推测。因为在中国,即便是那些有影响力的财经主管部门,也不能代表政府的最高决策部门-国务院-来拍板。在中国,出席官方主办的会议和论坛是重要的,阅读官方主流媒体的社论以及高级官员发表的文章,也必不可少。在重大政策决策前夕,你总是可以从中找到蛛丝马迹。这对于外国人来说简直是不可思议,一头雾水,尽管情况常常是,在一项政策被决定之前,总是会有风言风语在坊间流传,而境外的媒体往往先知先觉。

这些日子以来,人民币的汇率问题弄得满城风雨,成为全球讨论的焦点。不足为怪,作为全球第二大经济体并且在全球经济复苏中扮演着举足轻重的角色,中国货币币值的不稳定自然牵动着投资者的神经。但是,在这当中,危言耸听者众多,大多数人并不冷静,更未能真正follow-甚至误读与曲解了-中国货币当局的每一步的政策与做法,从而很遗憾完全看不到一个完整的画面是个什么样子。

呼声甚高的关于做空人民币的言论虽然引发人民币汇率的波动和热钱流出的加快,但这毕竟还只是发生在相对于在岸市场来说微不足道的人民币离岸市场且处于政府的可控之中。这是因为不仅仅离岸市场规模狭小,连接在岸与离岸市场的通道屈指可数,更重要的是,中国10年来在金融市场开放和资本账户可兑换上的决心也摇摆不定,直至两年前启动了上海自贸区,金融开放上的行动也相当迟缓,这种极其有限的金融开放既可以解释造成人民币汇率动荡的原因,也反过来给予了中国方面在面对汇率波动时不必手忙脚乱的有利条件。中国的最高领导人公开承认,人民币不存在大幅度贬值的基础。这当然是话中有话。

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