Chinese children on sidewalk in Beijing

中国的货币政策选择

上海—近几年来,中国经济的运行轨迹不可不谓引人注目:从打破纪录的增长发动机沦为了重大全球风险,至少在某些人眼里是如此。事实上,今年GDP增长几乎肯定无法达到当局7%的目标,目前,全世界都在密切关注危机和急剧减速的信号。中国是如何走到这一步的?它能够让经济增长重回正轨吗?

中国增长不可持续已经有一段时间了。2008年,为了应对全球金融危机,中国实施了有欠审慎的固定资产投资刺激计划,保持了两年9%的GDP增长。但是,2011年后,刺激转变为宏观经济紧缩,导致投资增长从30%以上的名义增长率下降到最近的10%左右。这阻止了产能和资源的充分利用,也解释了为何GDP增长不可能超过7%。

产能过剩和增长下降是互相强化的。不仅产能过剩对增长具有消极影响,也许更重要的是,急剧下降的增长也会导致某些行业的大规模冗余(特别是资源业、重工业和化工业)。

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