VCG/ Getty Images

中国和东盟:换个剧本重来?

吉隆坡—海牙常设仲裁法院(PCA)就中国南海领土主张所作出的裁决,是国际法的一个分水岭,也是中国近年来在东南亚的强势战略主张的一次挫折。中国宣称不承认仲裁院的裁决,但并不等于中国可以泰然自若。

现在的问题是,中国要如何回应。中国会减缓在东南亚的强势战略吗?或者继续把南中国海问题当作中美竞争的其中一个题目:即假使中国判定美国没有政治意愿卷入冲突与风险,就大可通过武力执行其在南中国海的声索。

但中国如果在南中国海延续强势策略,可能只会适得其反。首先,东盟成员国被迫在中国和美国之间做出抉择。东盟国都希望避开在中美之间做出零和的抉择。东盟成员国——特别是菲律宾、新加坡、泰国和印度尼西亚——大多与美国有着深切的军事关系,但也非常重视与中国的经济关系。事实上,东盟国希望被当做独立的政治单位,而不是中美竞争的棋子。中国为东盟国保留越大的模糊策略空间,越符合中国在东南亚的长远利益。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/UNBG69z/zh;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.