China's President Xi Jinping  and US President Donald Trump Artyom Ivanov\TASS via Getty Images

从玻璃房子里看中国

发自纽黑文——在近期出台的中国宪法修订案中,取消国家领导任期仅限两届、每届五年的做法令外界深感震惊。对中国而言,领导继承的制度化是邓小平最重要的遗产之一,标志着对毛泽东的胡乱领袖崇拜所引发的痛苦不稳定状态得到了终结;而对西方来说,届别限制则是通向契约精神的意识形态桥梁。那么在中美关系不稳定的情况下,这一废除措施会否成为一个转折点呢?

让我们先从中国以及这一举措对其未来的意义开始讨论。要弄清楚在不同的领导继承框架下会发生些什么变化,重要的是看透当局那些含糊的说辞——从“小康社会”转变为“新时代”——并对其基本发展战略实施压力测试。

尽管万事皆有可能,并且总会有犯错误的风险,但我敢打赌,中国仍然会坚持当前的道路。无论领导者是否可以长期连任,将中国从一个贫穷的大型发展中国家转变为近乎一个繁荣的现代化高收入经济体的趋势不会改变。

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