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Chine : au-delà des réformes structurelles

HONG KONG – Les marchés mondiaux ont poussé un soupir de soulagement. Après le choc du Brexit, la Chine a évité un ralentissement économique avec un taux de croissance annuel du PIB à hauteur de 6,7% pour le premier semestre 2016. Pour autant elle n'est pas sortie d'affaire, car la réussite de son rééquilibrage structurel est incertaine. Or ce rééquilibrage est indispensable pour garantir une croissance durable à long terme.

Il est vrai que le gouvernement du président Xi Jinping s'engage sur la voie des réformes structurelles. Mais il ne peut plus s'appuyer sur la stimulation de la demande à court terme. Déjà cette année la croissance des investissements productifs a chuté de 2,4 points de pourcentage jusqu'à la valeur de 9%, tandis que les investissements du secteur privé ont augmenté de tout juste 2,8%.

Afin de stimuler la productivité et d'améliorer le fonctionnement du marché et de l'administration, le gouvernement veut maintenant mettre en œuvre des réformes structurelles touchant à l'offre. Mais en raison de la taille de la Chine et de sa diversité, pour ne pas parler de son intégration dans l'économie mondiale, il est très difficile d'appliquer une nouvelle politique sur tout le territoire, dans tous les secteurs et les groupes sociaux. Pour y parvenir, le gouvernement doit envisager autre chose que sa stratégie habituelle qui va du haut vers le bas de la pyramide.

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