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超越结构改革

香港—2016年上半年中国的经济增长平均为6.7%,这让全球市场舒了一口气。在英国投票退出欧盟的冲击后,中国的GDP数据表明其经济似乎已经摆脱衰退。但这并不意味着中国经济已经安全着陆,确保可持续长期增长所需要的结构再平衡能否成功还远未确定。

国家主席习近平领导的中国政府对于结构改革可谓尽心尽力,知道不能再依靠刺激短期需求来挺增长。今年头半年,固定资产投资增长已经下降了2.4个百分点至9%,民营部门的固定资产投资增长率更是只有2.8%。

中央政府的计划是实施供给侧改革以提振生产率、改善市场和政府的运行效率。但是,考虑到中国的规模和多样性——更不用说其深深融入全球经济的状况——在各个地区、部门和社会群体中沟通和实施新政策并不容易。中国要想成功,其决策层可能需要跳出中国传统的自上而下的施政习惯。

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