Machine manufacturing in China Bloomberg | getty images

El próximo estímulo chino

PEKÍN – Desde noviembre del año pasado, tanto los economistas como los medios aclaman las reformas estructurales del lado de la oferta como una solución innovadora para las tribulaciones económicas de China. Después de todo, según la lógica propuesta, las políticas del lado de la demanda en forma de medidas de estímulo keynesianas solo son útiles para solucionar problemas de corto plazo y de demanda agregada. Debido a que los problemas chinos son de largo plazo y estructurales, el país debe centrarse en la reforma estructural del lado de la oferta, incluso aunque eso implique aceptar un menor crecimiento del PIB. ¿Es este el enfoque adecuado?

El crecimiento del PIB se genera por la interacción entre el lado de la oferta y el de la demanda de la economía. Por ejemplo, la inversión en capital humano permite la innovación, cuyos productos generan demanda y, a su vez, crecimiento económico. Las políticas del lado de la demanda y los ajustes estructurales no son mutuamente excluyentes. En términos agregados, el crecimiento de la oferta determina el potencial de crecimiento, y el crecimiento de la demanda, el uso de ese potencial. Para cambiar la estructura económica y el patrón de crecimiento, primero se debe cambiar la estructura de la demanda.

Para China, el lado de la oferta debe recibir su impulso a través de la innovación y la creación, más que por un aumento de los insumos. Del lado de la demanda, el impulso debe provenir más del consumo interno que de la inversión (especialmente en bienes raíces) y las exportaciones. Como este cambio está resultando difícil, ya que los factores estructurales llevan a que la tasa de crecimiento potencial china de largo plazo caiga, la economía ahora parece encaminarse este año hacia a una tasa incluso menor.

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