Machine manufacturing in China Bloomberg | getty images

El próximo estímulo chino

PEKÍN – Desde noviembre del año pasado, tanto los economistas como los medios aclaman las reformas estructurales del lado de la oferta como una solución innovadora para las tribulaciones económicas de China. Después de todo, según la lógica propuesta, las políticas del lado de la demanda en forma de medidas de estímulo keynesianas solo son útiles para solucionar problemas de corto plazo y de demanda agregada. Debido a que los problemas chinos son de largo plazo y estructurales, el país debe centrarse en la reforma estructural del lado de la oferta, incluso aunque eso implique aceptar un menor crecimiento del PIB. ¿Es este el enfoque adecuado?

El crecimiento del PIB se genera por la interacción entre el lado de la oferta y el de la demanda de la economía. Por ejemplo, la inversión en capital humano permite la innovación, cuyos productos generan demanda y, a su vez, crecimiento económico. Las políticas del lado de la demanda y los ajustes estructurales no son mutuamente excluyentes. En términos agregados, el crecimiento de la oferta determina el potencial de crecimiento, y el crecimiento de la demanda, el uso de ese potencial. Para cambiar la estructura económica y el patrón de crecimiento, primero se debe cambiar la estructura de la demanda.

Para China, el lado de la oferta debe recibir su impulso a través de la innovación y la creación, más que por un aumento de los insumos. Del lado de la demanda, el impulso debe provenir más del consumo interno que de la inversión (especialmente en bienes raíces) y las exportaciones. Como este cambio está resultando difícil, ya que los factores estructurales llevan a que la tasa de crecimiento potencial china de largo plazo caiga, la economía ahora parece encaminarse este año hacia a una tasa incluso menor.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now