Machine manufacturing in China Bloomberg | getty images

中国的下一轮刺激政策

发自北京——从去年十一月以来,经济学家和媒体都都在为供应侧结构改革大唱赞歌,视之为破除中国经济困境的开创性解决方案。说到底,在中国人眼里以凯恩斯主义刺激形式存在的需求侧政策只能解决短期和数量问题。既然当前的问题是长期和结构性的,那么国家就该聚焦在供应侧的结构改革,即使GDP增速放缓也在所不惜。不过这个做法就是对的吗?

GDP增长是通过经济的供给侧和需求侧之间的相互作用来推动的。比如说在人力资本上的投资能驱动创新,而创新产生的产品反过来又创造了需求——以及经济增长。需求侧政策和结构性调整不是相互排斥的。从总体来看,供应增长决定了增长潜力,而需求的增长则决定了这一潜力如何付诸现实。要转变经济结构和增长模式的话,首先就得改变需求的结构。

对中国来说,应该主要由创新和创造来驱动供应侧,而非以增加投入为主。在需求侧,主力应该是国内消费,而非投资(尤其是房地产)和出口。但这种转换遇到了难题,因为结构性因素导致中国的长期潜在增长率下降;目前看来今年的经济甚至还要低于这个已经调低的增长率水平。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/fesDA9C/zh;
  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.


    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?


    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now