Bloomberg | getty images Comments 1 Add to Bookmarks chinese Chinese Arabic English Spanish Facebook Twitter Whatsapp 中国的下一轮刺激政策 Mar 24, 2016 Yu Yongding 发自北京——从去年十一月以来，经济学家和媒体都都在为供应侧结构改革大唱赞歌，视之为破除中国经济困境的开创性解决方案。说到底，在中国人眼里以凯恩斯主义刺激形式存在的需求侧政策只能解决短期和数量问题。既然当前的问题是长期和结构性的，那么国家就该聚焦在供应侧的结构改革，即使GDP增速放缓也在所不惜。不过这个做法就是对的吗？GDP增长是通过经济的供给侧和需求侧之间的相互作用来推动的。比如说在人力资本上的投资能驱动创新，而创新产生的产品反过来又创造了需求——以及经济增长。需求侧政策和结构性调整不是相互排斥的。从总体来看，供应增长决定了增长潜力，而需求的增长则决定了这一潜力如何付诸现实。要转变经济结构和增长模式的话，首先就得改变需求的结构。对中国来说，应该主要由创新和创造来驱动供应侧，而非以增加投入为主。在需求侧，主力应该是国内消费，而非投资（尤其是房地产）和出口。但这种转换遇到了难题，因为结构性因素导致中国的长期潜在增长率下降；目前看来今年的经济甚至还要低于这个已经调低的增长率水平。 To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address. Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access. Email required Receive our Sunday newsletter Log in Featured Why Is Bangladesh Booming? Apr 23, 2018 Kaushik Basu What’s Been Stopping the Left? Apr 10, 2018 Dani Rodrik Political Machismo Apr 10, 2018 Ian Buruma Will China Really Supplant US Economic Hegemony? Apr 2, 2018 Kenneth Rogoff Should Tech Companies Be More Tightly Regulated? Mar 30, 2018 Simon Johnson LinkedIn Google+ Bookmark Email Print 1 Facebook Twitter Whatsapp Show More Show More Contact Us http://prosyn.org/fesDA9C/zh;
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发自北京——从去年十一月以来，经济学家和媒体都都在为供应侧结构改革大唱赞歌，视之为破除中国经济困境的开创性解决方案。说到底，在中国人眼里以凯恩斯主义刺激形式存在的需求侧政策只能解决短期和数量问题。既然当前的问题是长期和结构性的，那么国家就该聚焦在供应侧的结构改革，即使GDP增速放缓也在所不惜。不过这个做法就是对的吗？
GDP增长是通过经济的供给侧和需求侧之间的相互作用来推动的。比如说在人力资本上的投资能驱动创新，而创新产生的产品反过来又创造了需求——以及经济增长。需求侧政策和结构性调整不是相互排斥的。从总体来看，供应增长决定了增长潜力，而需求的增长则决定了这一潜力如何付诸现实。要转变经济结构和增长模式的话，首先就得改变需求的结构。
对中国来说，应该主要由创新和创造来驱动供应侧，而非以增加投入为主。在需求侧，主力应该是国内消费，而非投资（尤其是房地产）和出口。但这种转换遇到了难题，因为结构性因素导致中国的长期潜在增长率下降；目前看来今年的经济甚至还要低于这个已经调低的增长率水平。
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