businessman sleeping Silverio Petruzzellis/Flickr

Test de résistance en temps réel pour la Chine

HONG KONG – La chute des marchés boursiers chinois, dont l’onde de choc se propage actuellement au monde entier, constitue une véritable mise à l’épreuve en temps réel de la capacité de résistance du pays. Ceux qui avaient annoncé le déclin de l’économie chinoise selon une courbe de bear market éprouvent désormais une satisfaction malsaine. De leur côté, les annonciateurs d’un bull market soutiennent qu’en dépit de la violence des perturbations sur le marché boursier, la réussite économique de la Chine demeure intacte. En l’État actuel des choses, aucun dénouement n’apparaît certain.

Il convient avant tout de rappeler que la volatilité actuelle, bien qu’elle ne soit pas particulièrement souhaitable, constitue une phénomène naturel de correction du marché. Avant de chuter de 30 % par rapport au pic du 12 juin lors duquel il avait atteint 5 166, l’indice Shangai Composite avait grimpé de 150 % sur 12 mois. Une intervention sans précédent de la part des autorités – consistant notamment à permettre à 1 300 sociétés de suspendre leur trading – est venue stopper la dégringolade, l’indice ayant clôturé à 4 159 le 14 juillet.

À l’heure où s’opère le jeu des critiques, l’ouvrage de 1978 intitulé Manias, Panics, and Crashes, de l’auteur et historien Charles Kindleberger, nous offre une parfaite explication de ce que vit actuellement la Chine. L’économie du pays a connu un cycle habituel d’essor, euphorie, expansion monétaire, discrédit et révulsion, le tout sur une période de moins de 12 mois.

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