businessman sleeping Silverio Petruzzellis/Flickr

中国股市的压力测试

香港—中国股市过去几个星期的剧烈波动震惊了全世界,已成为一场活生生难得的压力测试。悲观派坚定地预测中国经济将因此硬着陆,此刻他们可谓踌躇满志。乐观派则坚持不管股市波动多么剧烈,中国经济的成功故事仍然没有受到影响,还会继续。前景到底会如何?现在还难以确定 。

首先应该注意到,目前的波动尽管不尽如人意,但它反映的可能是正常的市场回归。上证指数在从6月12日的高点5,166点暴跌30%前,其在12个月的时间里上涨了150%。股指暴跌后,当局史无前例的干预——包括允许大约1,300家企业停牌——稳住了市场,上证综指在7月14日收于4,159点,并在之后的一个多星期由于当局的支持措施徘徊在4000点上下。

尽管寻找罪魁的游戏还在继续,历史学家查尔斯·金德尔伯格(Charles Kindleberger)1978年的著作《疯狂、恐慌和崩溃》(Manias, Panics, and Crashes)为中国股市的这次泡沫提供了完美的五环节解释,包括(1)超常表现 (displacement)、(2)过度交易(overtrading)、(3)货币扩张(monetary expansion)、(4)失去信心(discredit)和恐慌撤逃(revulsion),所有这五个环节都发生在不到12个月的时间。

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