businessman sleeping Silverio Petruzzellis/Flickr


香港—中国股市过去几个星期的剧烈波动震惊了全世界,已成为一场活生生难得的压力测试。悲观派坚定地预测中国经济将因此硬着陆,此刻他们可谓踌躇满志。乐观派则坚持不管股市波动多么剧烈,中国经济的成功故事仍然没有受到影响,还会继续。前景到底会如何?现在还难以确定 。


尽管寻找罪魁的游戏还在继续,历史学家查尔斯·金德尔伯格(Charles Kindleberger)1978年的著作《疯狂、恐慌和崩溃》(Manias, Panics, and Crashes)为中国股市的这次泡沫提供了完美的五环节解释,包括(1)超常表现 (displacement)、(2)过度交易(overtrading)、(3)货币扩张(monetary expansion)、(4)失去信心(discredit)和恐慌撤逃(revulsion),所有这五个环节都发生在不到12个月的时间。

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