Marketing in China

Falešná stopa čínského akciového trhu

ŘÍM – V situaci, kdy složený index šanghajské burzy klesl od loňského června o více než 40%, sledují investoři z celého světa tento pokles s rostoucími obavami – ne však proto, že investovali do padajícího trhu (čínské akcie v drtivé většině drží Číňané). Spíše mají strach, že propad cen akcií znamená i pokles celé čínské ekonomiky. Ti, kdo hledají přesvědčivé důkazy o hospodářské budoucnosti Číny, by se však raději měli poohlédnout jinde.

Samozřejmě je pravda, že čínské tempo růstu podstatně zpomalilo, a existuje bezpočet důvodů, proč se domnívat, že toto zpomalení není dočasné. Žádný z těchto důvodů však příliš nesouvisí s akciovým trhem.

Tato odtrženost je patrná na faktu, že tržní ceny jsou dnes vyšší než v roce 2014, kdy Čína předstihla Spojené státy a stala se největší světovou ekonomikou (měřeno podle parity kupní síly), kterážto událost vyvolala býčí očekávání. Tehdejší pozorovatelé si zřejmě neuvědomili, že čínská ekonomika už zpomaluje. Podle oficiálních statistik dosahovalo tempo růstu v letech 1980-2010 v průměru 10%, avšak v letech 2012-2014 kleslo na 7-8%.

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