Marketing in China

中国的股市烟雾弹

发自罗马——上证券综合指数自去年六月以来已经出现超过40%的跌幅,而全球投资者对这场下跌的关注也日渐增加——这并不是因为他们有意趁暴跌抄底(中国的股票绝大多数还是由中国投资者持有)。相反,他们担心的是股价暴跌意味着中国的经济已经进入下行通道。而那些试图分辨中国经济未来的人则应该从其他地方去寻找可靠的线索。

当然,中国的增长速度已经显著放缓是事实,并有充足的理由相信,这种减速并非是暂时的。但所有这些原因基本上都跟股市没什么关系。

这种脱节状况其实已经相当明显,因为当前的股市价格竟然比2014年更高,而那年正是中国超过美国成为世界第一大经济体(按购买力平价计算)并催生了乐观预期的一年。但当时似乎并没有什么观察家认识到中国的经济已经放缓。据官方统计,1980~2010年间的增速平均为10%,而在2012~2014年间则下降到7-8%。

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