china stock market crash Zhengyi Xie/ZumaPress

Falsa alarma sobre los acontecimientos en China

MANILA – Según algunos expertos, el milagro económico chino –que sacó a 300 millones de personas de la pobreza y cambió el centro de gravedad geopolítico mundial– está llegando a un fin tumultuoso. El volátil mercado bursátil y la “sorpresiva” deprecación del renminbi son señales de un colapso económico inminente; de acuerdo con esta opinión, las inversiones riesgosas y los altos niveles de deuda pública frenan las décadas de un crecimiento pronunciado de la producción.

Por suerte, no hay muchas razones para creer dichas predicciones desesperadas, o que los giros del mercado que han orientado los titulares recientes en los diarios representan algo más que una volatilidad de corto plazo. Después de todo, los movimientos en las cotizaciones bursátiles no son suficientes para pronosticar el comportamiento real de la economía.

En efecto, cuando el PIB chino crecía a pasos agigantados entre 2010 y 2013, las cotizaciones bursátiles estaban cayendo. Y más recientemente durante el primer semestre de 2015, cuando las cotizaciones bursátiles empezaron a dispararse, la desaceleración de la economía ya había empezado. Como comentó el economista estadounidense, Paul Samuelson, “el mercado de valores ha previsto nueve de las últimas cinco recesiones”.

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