china stock market crash Zhengyi Xie/ZumaPress

Ложная тревога по поводу Китая

МАНИЛА – Разговоры некоторых экспертов про чудо экономики Китая – что подняла 300 млн человек из нищеты и сместила мировой геополитический центр тяжести - подходят к своему бурному завершению. Согласно этой точке зрения, волатильность фондовых рынков и “неожиданное” обесценивание юаня, являются признаками надвигающегося экономического коллапса, так как рискованные инвестиции и высокий уровень государственного долга тормозят десятилетия мощного производственного роста.

К счастью, существует мало оснований верить таким мрачным прогнозам или в то, что резкие колебания рынка, которые двигали последними заголовками, представляют нечто большее, чем краткосрочная волатильность. В конце концов, изменение цены капитала, является плохим прогнозом реальной экономической эффективности.

Действительно, когда ВВП Китая был в сильном росте в течение 2010-2013 годов, цены на акции падали. Совсем недавно, когда в первой половине 2015 года цены на акции начали расти, замедление экономики уже началось. Как саркастически заметил американский экономист Пол Самуэльсон, “Фондовый рынок назвал девять из последних пяти экономических спадов”.

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