china stock market watching Jessie Wang/Flickr

不正常的中国股市

伦敦—中国股市再次暴跌8.5%——历史上第二大单日跌幅,也是全球金融危机以来第一大单日跌幅。股市“过山车”远未结束。

事实上,中国股市更像是赌场而不是游乐场。散户贡献了85%的交易量,而在其他主要市场,机构投资者——它们拥有相对更充分的信息——才是最大的交易者。

毫不奇怪,结果便是市场波动剧烈,流言和情绪在驱动股价方面起着极大的作用。而这一波动性正是赌场比喻成立的另一个原因:中国股市可以暴涨暴跌10%以上而不引发更广泛的经济灾难——至少到目前为止是如此。比如,2001—2005年,中国股市市值缩水一半,这并没有影响到中国GDP(事实上,中国经济增长率接近10%),而此后的市场复苏(直到2008年金融危机后才大幅下跌)也是如此。

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