Wang He/Getty Images

El crecimiento mundial aún está “Hecho en China”

NEW HAVEN – A pesar de tanta ansiedad y retorcer de manos a causa de una posible y alardeada desaceleración, China, desafiando tanto cacareo continúa siendo el mayor contribuyente al crecimiento del PIB mundial. Para una economía mundial que renguea y pierde velocidad – y probablemente es incapaz de resistir un shock significativo sin derrumbarse y entrar en una recesión renovada – la mencionada contribución de China es aún mucho más importante.

Unas cuantas cifras corroboran lo antedicho. Si el crecimiento del PIB chino alcanza al 6,7% en el año 2016 – cifra que está en línea con la meta oficial del gobierno chino y sólo ligeramente por encima del último pronóstico del Fondo Monetario Internacional (6,6%) – China podría dar cuenta de 1,2 puntos porcentuales del crecimiento del PIB mundial. Considerando que el FMI espera actualmente un crecimiento mundial de tan sólo el 3,1%  este año, China contribuiría con casi el 39% de este crecimiento total.

Ese porcentaje empequeñece la contribución de otras economías importantes. Por ejemplo, si bien Estados Unidos es ampliamente elogiado por su sólida recuperación, se espera que su PIB que crezca un mero 2,2 por ciento en el año 2016 – lo suficiente para contribuir al crecimiento del PIB total mundial con tan sólo 0,3 puntos porcentuales o, dicho en otra forma, su contribución es aproximadamente una cuarta parte de la de China

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