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Globales Wachstum – noch immer „Made in China“

NEW HAVEN – Trotz all des Händeringens über den vielbeschworenen Konjunkturabschwung in China leistet die chinesische Volkswirtschaft nach immer den deutlich größten Beitrag zum globalen BIP-Wachstum. Für eine Weltwirtschaft, die mit Abrissgeschwindigkeit einher hinkt – und einer erheblichen Erschütterung vermutlich nicht ohne neuerlichen Absturz in die Rezession widerstehen dürfte – ist dieser Beitrag daher umso wichtiger.

Dies lässt sich durch ein paar Zahlen belegen. Falls das chinesische BIP im Einklang mit dem offiziellen Ziel der Regierung in 2016 die Marke von 6,7% erreicht – was nur knapp über der neuesten Prognose des Internationalen Währungsfonds (6,6%) liegt –, würden 1,2 Prozentpunkte des globalen BIP-Wachstums auf China entfallen. Aktuell erwartet der IWF für dieses Jahr ein weltweites Wachstum von nur 3,1%; damit läge der Beitrag Chinas bei fast 39% der Gesamtsumme.

Der Beitrag der anderen wichtigen Volkswirtschaften nimmt sich dagegen zwergenhaft aus. Während etwa die USA weithin für ihre solide Konjunkturerholung gelobt werden, dürfte ihr BIP 2016 um lediglich 2,2% steigen. Dies reicht gerade mal aus, um 0,3 Prozentpunkte zum weltweiten BIP-Wachstum insgesamt beizusteuern, und entspricht nur etwa einem Viertel des chinesischen Beitrags.

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