Wang He/Getty Images

Globales Wachstum – noch immer „Made in China“

NEW HAVEN – Trotz all des Händeringens über den vielbeschworenen Konjunkturabschwung in China leistet die chinesische Volkswirtschaft nach immer den deutlich größten Beitrag zum globalen BIP-Wachstum. Für eine Weltwirtschaft, die mit Abrissgeschwindigkeit einher hinkt – und einer erheblichen Erschütterung vermutlich nicht ohne neuerlichen Absturz in die Rezession widerstehen dürfte – ist dieser Beitrag daher umso wichtiger.

Dies lässt sich durch ein paar Zahlen belegen. Falls das chinesische BIP im Einklang mit dem offiziellen Ziel der Regierung in 2016 die Marke von 6,7% erreicht – was nur knapp über der neuesten Prognose des Internationalen Währungsfonds (6,6%) liegt –, würden 1,2 Prozentpunkte des globalen BIP-Wachstums auf China entfallen. Aktuell erwartet der IWF für dieses Jahr ein weltweites Wachstum von nur 3,1%; damit läge der Beitrag Chinas bei fast 39% der Gesamtsumme.

Der Beitrag der anderen wichtigen Volkswirtschaften nimmt sich dagegen zwergenhaft aus. Während etwa die USA weithin für ihre solide Konjunkturerholung gelobt werden, dürfte ihr BIP 2016 um lediglich 2,2% steigen. Dies reicht gerade mal aus, um 0,3 Prozentpunkte zum weltweiten BIP-Wachstum insgesamt beizusteuern, und entspricht nur etwa einem Viertel des chinesischen Beitrags.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now