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La croissance mondiale et la Chine

NEW HAVEN – Malgré toutes les inquiétudes suscitées par le fameux ralentissement économique de la Chine, cette dernière reste le principal artisan de la croissance du PIB mondial. Sa contribution est d'autant plus importante que l'économie mondiale tourne au ralenti et ne pourra probablement pas résister à une crise d'envergure sans verser dans une nouvelle récession.

Quelques chiffres pour illustrer cette situation. Si la croissance du PIB de la Chine atteint l'objectif officiel de 6,7% cette année - ce qui est légèrement supérieure à la dernière prévision du FMI de 6,6% - elle comptera pour prés de 39% de la croissance mondiale (soit 1,2 points de pourcentage de la croissance du PIB mondial qui devrait s'élever à seulement 3,1% cette année selon la prévision actuelle du FMI).

En comparaison, la contribution des autres grands pays est minime. Ainsi la croissance du PIB des USA dont on vante la reprise devrait atteindre à peine 2,2% cette année - une contribution de seulement 0,3 points de pourcentage à la croissance du PIB mondial - soit environ le quart de la contribution chinoise.

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