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全球增长——依然中国制造

纽黑文—夸大中国减速的焦虑不绝于耳,但中国经济仍然是世界GDP增长的最大贡献者。对于以失速速度蹒跚前行的全球经济而言——如果再来一次大冲击,恐怕就无法避免再次陷入衰退了——这一贡献无比重要。

一组数据说明了这一点。如果2016年中国GDP增长达到6.7%——与政府官方目标一致,略高于国际货币基金组织(IMF)的最新预测6.6%——则中国将为世界GDP增长贡献1.2个百分点。目前,IMF 预测今年全球增长仅为3.1%,这意味着其中中国的贡献接近39%。

如此比重令其他主要经济体汗颜。比如,尽管人们广泛赞扬美国稳步复苏,但其2016年增长率预计只有2.2%——只能为世界总GDP增长贡献0.3个百分点,或者中国贡献幅度的四分之一。

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