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Una economía socialista de mercado con contradicciones chinas.

LONDRES – El año 2016 termina con pronósticos ligeramente más altos con respecto al crecimiento y la inflación a nivel mundial. En parte, ellos reflejan las expectativas de un gran nuevo estímulo fiscal en Estados Unidos bajo la administración del presidente Donald Trump. Pero, es de igual importancia el poderío de la economía de China, con su boyante producción industrial que impulsa un fuerte aumento en los precios de las materias primas a nivel mundial.

Esa fortaleza ha confundido las expectativas sobre que el auge del crédito de siete años de duración de China, durante el cual la relación deuda/PIB de China aumentó del 150% al 250%, terminaría inevitablemente en el año 2016. Algunos inversores occidentales pronosticaron una crisis bancaria debido a enormes deudas incobrables; otros esperaban que el Presidente Xi Jinping, al haber ya consolidado su posición política, fuese a introducir reformas económicas estructurales. Pero casi todos los economistas no chinos esperaban una importante desaceleración, que iría a intensificar las presiones deflacionarias a nivel mundial.

De hecho, ha sucedido todo lo contrario. Los préstamos adquiridos por el gobierno central y los gobiernos locales se dispararon: el crédito bancario y de los bancos en las sombras ha crecido rápidamente, y el Banco Popular de China (BPC) ha otorgado cada vez más préstamos directos a bancos de propiedad estatal en una maniobra que se parece mucho a la financiación monetaria del gasto público.

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