Kiosk salesman in China

La desconexión de la macroeconomía china

NEW HAVEN – El cambio estructural y el rebalanceo son empresas formidables para cualquier economía. China lleva cinco años en pos de estos objetivos, buscando transformar un modelo de crecimiento poderoso pero desequilibrado (basado en gran medida en las exportaciones y las inversiones) en otro cuyo motor sean cada vez más los consumidores chinos. El éxito es esencial para que China evite la temida “trampa de los ingresos medios”: la desaceleración económica que la mayoría de las economías en desarrollo que crecen rápido experimentan cuando alcanzan un nivel de ingresos comparable al que hoy tiene China.

Los resultados han sido variados. Los primeros intentos de transformar la estructura industrial de la economía china para volcarla de las manufacturas a los servicios (que hace mucho se consideran el fundamento de las sociedades de consumo modernas) han sido muy exitosos. Pero China no tuvo tanto éxito en impulsar el consumo privado. Ya no le queda otra opción que encarar de frente esta desconexión.

El desempeño del sector servicios de China ha sido especialmente destacable estos últimos años; según las estadísticas oficiales, su participación en el PIB creció desde 44% en 2010 hasta 51,6% en los tres primeros trimestres de 2015. Esto es casi el doble del aumento de cuatro puntos porcentuales previsto en un primer momento, como parte del 12.º Plan Quinquenal, cuyo fin está próximo.

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