Kiosk salesman in China

La Chine et la trappe des revenus moyens

NEW HAVEN – Réformer structurellement une économie et la rééquilibrer constituent un énorme défi. Or ce sont ces objectifs que se fixe la Chine pour les cinq prochaines années. Elle veut transformer son modèle de croissance extrêmement puissant mais déséquilibré qui repose sur les exportations et l'investissement en un modèle orienté sur la consommation. Elle doit réussir cette transformation pour ne pas tomber dans la trappe redoutable des revenus moyens – le ralentissement que subissent la plupart des pays en développement rapide lorsque ils parviennent à un niveau de revenu par habitant comparable à celui atteint par la Chine aujourd'hui.

Le résultat est mitigé. Au début, l'empire du Milieu a réussi la transition d'une structure économique reposant sur la production industrielle à une autre reposant sur les services – ce que l'on considère généralement comme la fondation des sociétés de consommation modernes. Mais en terme de stimulation de la consommation des ménages, ses progrès sont beaucoup moins marqués. Aussi n'a-t-elle maintenant d'autre choix que de se confronter à cette divergence.

La réussite du secteur des services est impressionnante, et ce depuis quelques années. Selon les chiffres officiels, sa part est passée de 44% du PIB chinois en 2010 à 51,6% au cours des trois premiers trimestres de 2015. C'est presque le double de la progression de 4 points de pourcentage envisagée par le 12° plan quinquennal qui arrive à terme.

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