Politics

Hedvábná rukavice pro čínskou železnou pěst

Mar 4, 2015 Brahma Chellaney

NOVÉ DILLÍ – Po léta se Čína snažila obkroužit Asii “šňůrou perel“: sítí přístavů spojujících její východní pobřeží s Blízkým východem, které by posílily její strategický vliv a námořní přístup. Není překvapením, že Indie a další země hleděly na tyto aktivity s obavami.

Nyní se však Čína snaží zamaskovat tuto strategii tvrzením, že chce vytvořit námořní Hedvábnou stezku 21. století s cílem zlepšit obchod a kulturní výměnu. Přátelská rétorika ale v Asii zřídkakdy rozptýlí obavy a mimo to, strategickým zájmem Číny je dominance v regionu.

Tyto obavy mají reálný základ. Jednoduše řečeno, iniciativa Hedvábné stezky je koncipována tak, aby z Číny vytvořila centrum nového uspořádání v Asii a v oblasti Indického oceánu. A skutečně, prací na vytvoření dominance podél hlavních obchodních tepen současně s podněcováním teritoriálních a námořních sporů s několika sousedními zeměmi se Čína pokouší překreslit geopolitickou mapu Asie.

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Brahma Chellaney

Writing for PS since 2009
169 Commentaries

Brahma Chellaney, Professor of Strategic Studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research and Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin, is the author of nine books, including Water: Asia’s New Battleground (Georgetown University Press, 2011), for which he won the 2012 Asia Society Bernard Schwartz Book Award.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 18 Comments on this article

Kenneth Pao May 29, 2015

It's about time professor Chellaney look inward for the future of India and or complaining about India's surroundings. For India to rise up again and gain the respect that a large nation deserves, India needs to grow its economy and develop its nation wide infrastructure aggressively. For that to happen, India's multitude of political parties need to have the same vision for India's future and all of them sing out of the same hymn book. What is the likelihood of that happening anytime soon ? Not much there lies the #1 obstacle facing India ! Why doesn't professor Chellaney say something about that instead ?
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Gwyneth Marcelo Mar 14, 2015

A fantastic essay, compelling and well-supported. China is also supposedly buying up agricultural land in Africa, which is related to this strategy.
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Hans Donnelly Mar 10, 2015

This is an incisive, cogent piece on China's aspirations for regional hegemony. But just like its earlier rhetoric of "peaceful rise" was designed to obscure its rapid accumulation of power and increasing assertiveness, it has tried to present its "string of pearls" strategy as a Maritime Silk Road project. Only the naive will buy that.
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Allan Bleiken Mar 7, 2015

One must always be careful not to cry wolf, or risk being discredited dismissed. While the author claims that China is guilty of hegemony, how many foreign troops does China have stationed in other countries and how many foreign military conflicts has China been involved with?

By contrast, the US has more than 100,000 troops in numerous foreign countries and is actively engaged in numerous military conflicts, some of which they have initiated.

Historically, China has had the opportunity to be a world superpower, and historically, has stayed within its own boarders. Not many countries can make that claim, especially the empire nations such as Great Britain, of the past few centuries.

Honesty and integrity is the hallmark of a good or credible author. This author has failed to demonstrate these qualities.
- hari naidu Mar 7, 2015
  
  @ Bleiken
  
  Not only honesty and integrity, this guy is the propagandist of Abe's strategic policy against mainland China, including South China Seas. You should have witnessed how he was embraced by Japanese media supporting Abe V. China.
  
  Luckily Modi didn't appoint him his national security advisor.
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Tony Grey Mar 6, 2015

Burgeoning jihadism, the rise of China, her own extraordinary human rights and democratic accomplishments have all thrust Indonesia to the front and centre of the geo-political landscape. A leading and permanent place must be found for this new exemplar of decency as soon as possible; but what position on the world’s stage can Indonesia take? As the greatest Muslim nation in the world, sitting on the front line of China’s outrageous claim in the South China Sea, she is mightily constrained. Indonesia must take her position on the world stage with the greatest of care. Her position must reflect, not only her geographical location but her political non-alignment, her moderate Islamism, her role within ASEAN, her Chinese relationship and her democracy with the greatest accuracy possible. Indonesia needs the best geo-political map available to find her very eminent place in the world.

The blue countries are current members of the Commonwealth, the green ones have historic connections to the Commonwealth, the striped ones have historic connections and have applied to join, the pink ones have no historic connections but have, at some level, expressed an interest to join the Commonwealth.

Indonesia’s membership of the Commonwealth would mean, suddenly, overnight, the majority of the world’s Muslim faith belong to an institution dedicated exclusively to liberal democracy and the rule of common rather than sharia law. It would be very surprising, even shocking, to non-Muslims worldwide who are growing more anti -Muslim every day. The surprise could clear the geo-political atmosphere enough so non-Muslim and Muslim alike could see a distinct, possible pathway to reconciliation. There could be hope where today there is none.

One of the things you miss, because of the scale of the map, is the Palestine National Authority has already applied to join the Commonwealth – it was knocked back because its borders aren’t settled. Once those borders are settled Israel will be welcomed into our “family of nations” to. The potential of the Commonwealth is, for all geo-political intents and purposes limitless.

Indonesia was a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement and it means a lot to her. Forty two of the fifty four member states of the Commonwealth belong to the Non-Aligned Movement. She would feel right at home in our “family of nations”.

Another striking aspect of the map is Indonesia is the only Indian Ocean littoral state not coloured in. There is the tiny sliver of Thailand’s Indian Ocean coastline similarly bereft but essentially the Indian Ocean is the Commonwealth Ocean. In an infamous and supposedly secret memorandum written sixteen years ago by the Director of the General Logistic Department of the P.L.A. , he wrote “We can no longer accept the Indian Ocean as only an ocean of the Indians… we are taking armed conflicts in the region into account.” As China seeds its “string of pearls” across the INDIAN Ocean it would lift every free person’s spirits world-wide to see Indonesia colour herself blue on our map. The great wall of decency would stretch uninterrupted from deep in the South Pacific to the Himalayas. It’s time to shut the gate on China’s complete lack of respect for everyone’s sovereignty. Indonesia can do it with the most unprovocative act in the diplomatic repertoire - Commonwealth Membership.

As soon as she complies with the criteria laid out in the Harare Declaration 1991 Burma will join the Commonwealth. She will join Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei as Commonwealth Members of ASEAN. You can see from the map that Cambodia has already applied but she will have to do what Burma did to China and more to get a look-in. Of course the Philippines and Thailand are possibilities and Indonesia is, already, far more democratically respectable than a number of established Commonwealth Members. Indonesia is, already, leading ASEAN’s internal efforts in human rights. The ASEAN Political Security Community a body incorporating principles such as the rule of law, democracy, good governance, and the promotion and protection of human rights was Indonesia’s idea and baby. Indonesia has, within ASEAN, replicated the Commonwealth’s mission statement to the last word.

Come on Indonesia……… a third of humanity can’t wait for beautiful you to join our family of nations.

Tony grey
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John Brown Mar 6, 2015

An excellent article detailing China's aggressive hegemonic plans. I can't believe a Great Nation like India will sit idly by and bow low to the Chinese as they decide to rule the India Ocean. My recommendation for what its worth is for India and Japan to work together to provide an alternative in the region that is superior to what China is doing, and that people will trust because both are peaceful democracies. I would add the U.S. , but while the U.S. is stuck with our current weak, INCOMPETENT, appeasing, dishonest, divisive, unfit President who is busy giving Iran Nukes there isn't much sense in engaging with him. As this article pointed out the pivot is losing steam, meaning Obama is retreating already. India and Japan have what they need together to meet the challenge and prosper, and after Obama is gone a far weaker and damaged U.S. might start edging back into the game to help.
- Dark Chocolate Mar 8, 2015
  
  India may be a democracy in the narrowest of sense, but peaceful? Since its creation in 1947, India has invaded and grabbed land from every single of its neighbors. How peaceful is that. Check out the following list:
  
  1947 Annexation of Kashmir
  http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/02/06/indias-shame/
  
  1949 Annexation of Manipur
  http://www.tehelka.com/manipurs-merger-with-india-was-a-forced-annexation/
  
  1949 Annexation of Tripura
  http://www.crescent-online.net/2009/09/the-myths-of-one-nation-and-one-hinduism-in-india-zawahir-siddique-2316-articles.html
  
  1951 Annexation of South Tibet:
  http://kanglaonline.com/2011/06/khathing-the-taking-of-tawang/
  
  1961 Annexation of Goa:
  http://goa-invasion-1961.blogspot.in/2013/09/india-pirated-goa-china-is-regaining_16.html
  
  1962 Annexation of Kalapani, Nepal:
  http://www.eurasiareview.com/07032012-indian-hegemony-in-nepal-oped/
  
  1962 Aggression against China:
  http://gregoryclark.net/redif.html
  http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/news-events/podcasts/renewed-tension-indiachina-border-whos-blame
  
  1971 Annexation of Turtuk, Pakistan:
  http://www.openthemagazine.com/article/nation/suddenly-indian
  
  1972 Annexation of Tin Bigha, Bangladesh
  http://www.dhakatribune.com/op-ed/2014/feb/20/killing-fields
  
  1975 Annexation of Sikkim:
  http://nepalitimes.com/issue/35/Nation/9621#.UohjPHQo6LA
  
  1990 (Failed) Attempted annexation of Bhutan:
  http://www.nytimes.com/1990/10/07/world/india-based-groups-seek-to-disrupt-bhutan.html
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j. von Hettlingen Mar 5, 2015

The author, Brahma Chellaney doubts the benign nature of China's Maritime Silk Road (MSR) initiative and fears China's ambition to "establish its dominance" and create a "new order in Asia and the Indian Ocean region".
Last Year President Xi Jinping appealed to political leaders in Europe and Asia to help construct the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road. His Silk Road project aims at deepening the Eurasian cooperation in Central Asia and reviving ancient ties of friendship. The MSR initiative serves to develop China's remote, western provinces and narrow the growing prosperity gap between its eastern and western regions. Xi hopes it would help establish closer relations between China and the Asean countries, forming the bedrock of a China-Asean maritime connectivity. Yet Chellaney doesn't buy Xi "friendly rhetoric".
Indeed, with regard to the maritime route, Xi faces political resistance. Although India had also been invited to join the MSR initiative, it had not yet made up its mind. But Chellaney sees the invitation as a smoke screen, aiming at calming "a suspicious neighbor", and slowing India's "development of strategic ties with the US and Japan". The Sino-Indian relationship is luke warm, due to mutual distrust and occasional tensions regarding trade imbalance and an unresolved border issue in Aksai Chin. Both countries are led by strong leaders.
Last October Xi embarked on a charm offensive tour in the region to to win confidence and "allay conern". He visited Maldives and Sri Lanka before coming to India. The two countries were enthusiastic about China's invitation to join the MSR initiative. Yet the election in January removed China's strong ally in Sri Lanka, Mahinda Rajapaksa, who had sought closer ties with China. He was replaced by a new president, Maithripala Sirisena, who is determined to re-assess the country's commitments to China, and focus on improving ties with India. Delhi sees the Indian Ocean as its backyard and resents Beijing's naval presence there.
Chellaney believes that only a "concert of democracies can block" China's hegemony to expand in the Asia.
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jagjeet sinha Mar 5, 2015

The Concert of Democracies is neither a Security Alliance - like NATO - nor has it bestowed India with the benefits of an Economic Alliance - India's credit ratings never achieved even AA status. Australia Britain Canada have both. France Italy Germany have both. So unless Professor Chellaney believes India genuinely is accepted as integral to the Concert, India has to play the cards God gave us - cannot play with borrowed cards that can be taken away anytime for any reason. Yes, if India believes it's best self interest - and here I agree - is served in this Concert, it perhaps ought to convince China too that the World needs the Twin Pagodas to be on the winning side if history. Like Britain brings France around on America's side in most controversial predicaments. Asia's renaissance has been shouldered by China and Japan for most of the periods when India remained colonized. While India had been integral to the creation of The Anglosphere - as Britain's crown jewel - our economic emergence appeared permanently postponed until 1991 when the inspiration again was triggered by Japan-led-Asia followed by China-led-Asia. Economics must guide India's membership of Clubs - and India is too big to join mutually exclusive ones. India's networks must permit flexibility to formulate partnerships that serve economic self interest. Strategy differs from Tactics. Twice in history India ended up believing it had struck strategic relationships with Global Powers, and in both cases those Global Powers walked away from Indian illusions of indispensability. Before it entered a Third such relationship, India's historical legacy in Asia may be basis for returning to the Roots of The Bodhi Tree, for enlightenment on the path to a Glorious First World Concert. No Third World citizenship for perpetuity. May The Buddha bless India !
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Bijan Chakraborty Mar 5, 2015

India should join the Silk Road initiative & b vigilant about China's intentions. India is no naive.Recent developments in Bangladesh,Burma & Shri Lanka r in India's advantage.Let us hope that Indian Navy is competent enough to meet with any ill intentions against India.
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denis giannulas Mar 5, 2015

at least it does not declare , the rest of the world " vital interest" as we do and guard it with the 5th, 6th7th ... fleet
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Michael Public Mar 4, 2015

almost all ships are an antiquated military curiosity. Aircraft carriers and submarines don't need ports in the modern world. One would swear this was written in 1742.
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P. Kamath Mar 4, 2015

China deep pockets with lots of cash. It is very attractive for most smaller nations and their leaders who are tempted to take China's "aid". Once these interest-free loans accepted, economic destiny of smaller nations are sealed. When you receive, amorous services of a beautiful courtesan, she expects you something in return. That is the law of nature. China is no different here. Soon, Chinese manufactured goods will wipe out local industries, then there will be heavy imbalance of payment which ultimately will make these smaller nations Kow tow to China!

What do you call this behaviour ? So China , no matter what , will run rough shod over smaller guys. Other democratic nations can't do anything to reverse the trend!
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hari naidu Mar 4, 2015

India will join Xi's maritime Silk Road. Principally because India has nothing to lose. Hegemony of China in Asia is inevitable given its size and development path including military budget. However India has a lot to gain by joining China and its neighborhood on the Silk Road initiative. Isolation of India, by mainland China, is not possible. So why not join the new Silk Road...while also enjoying trade and development benefits.
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Paul Daley Mar 4, 2015

No one can hold back China's growth or its integration with the world economy. India may be uncomfortable if China takes to the seas, since it is most vulnerable from that quarter. But no major power, except perhaps Russia, is less well-placed to take advantage of India's vulnerability than China. There are just too many choke-points on the sea lanes between India and China. China could not pick a worse arena in which to fight.
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Harsh Ray Mar 4, 2015

China's ham-handed tactics are backfiring. Myanmar has slipped out of its control. The new government in Sri Lanka is iskeptical of China's intentions and wishes to roll back some of the Chinese-sponsored projects in the country. China sought to lease an island from the Maldives but has met little success. China may try to camouflage "string of pearls" as Maritime Silk Road but other states can see through its coarse cloak.
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Lee Chris Mar 4, 2015

It is understood that India has some concerns. But, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Pakistan, Bangladesh etc. are eager to join the project. India is just India, please do not pretend that India is representing the Asia.
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