Paul Lachine

Chine : le tournant décisif

NEW HAVEN – Début mars, le Congrès National du Peuple approuvera son 12ème Plan Quinquennal. Ce Plan devrait rester dans l’histoire comme l’initiative stratégique la plus audacieuse de la Chine.

Il modifiera profondément le caractère du modèle économique de la Chine – s’éloignant du modèle à l’ouvre depuis trente ans et fondé sur les exportations et l’investissement pour adopter un modèle de croissance fondé de plus en plus sur la consommation chinoise. Ce changement aura des implications profondes pour la Chine, le reste de l’Asie, et l’économie globale dans son ensemble.

Comme le cinquième Plan Quinquennal, qui avait ouvert la voie pour « les réformes et l’ouverture » de la fin des années 70, et le neuvième Plan Quinquennal, qui avait déclenché le processus de privatisation des entreprises publiques au milieu des années 90, le prochain plan obligera la Chine à repenser les propositions essentielles de valeur de son économie. Le Premier ministre Wen Jiabao avait exposé les bases de travail il y a quatre ans, lorsqu’il avait pour la première fois articulé le paradoxe chinois « en quatre points – une économie dont la force apparente masque une structure qui devient de plus en plus instable, déséquilibrée, désunie, et à terme, insoutenable. »

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