Paul Lachine

La lucha de China por aminorar la marcha

BEIJING – En la inauguración del período anual de sesiones del Parlamento de China, el Congreso Nacional Popular (CNP), el Primer Ministro Wen Jiabao anunció que la meta del gobierno en materia de crecimiento económico anual en 2012 era del 7,5 por ciento. Como la economía mundial sigue luchando para recuperarse, el anuncio por parte de Wen de una bajada tan importante de la tasa de crecimiento de China infundió, naturalmente, una preocupación generalizada en todo el mundo.

Pero es importante observar que Wen estaba expresando una política y no pronosticando resultados. El objeto de fijar como meta una tasa de crecimiento menor es, según explicó, el de “orientar a las personas de todos los sectores a que centren su labor en acelerar la transformación de la tónica de desarrollo económico y vuelvan este último más sostenible y eficiente”.

La inversión en activos fijos es el motor más importante del crecimiento de China. Como país en desarrollo con una renta anual por habitante de menos de 5.000 dólares, todavía hay un importante margen para que China aumente su capital nacional, pero la tasa de aumento de la inversión es demasiado elevada. La cuestión no es la de si China necesita más inversión, sino la de si su capacidad de absorción puede seguir acogiendo el rápido aumento de la inversión del pasado decenio.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/mWcLZQK/es;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now