Paul Lachine

La lucha de China por aminorar la marcha

BEIJING – En la inauguración del período anual de sesiones del Parlamento de China, el Congreso Nacional Popular (CNP), el Primer Ministro Wen Jiabao anunció que la meta del gobierno en materia de crecimiento económico anual en 2012 era del 7,5 por ciento. Como la economía mundial sigue luchando para recuperarse, el anuncio por parte de Wen de una bajada tan importante de la tasa de crecimiento de China infundió, naturalmente, una preocupación generalizada en todo el mundo.

Pero es importante observar que Wen estaba expresando una política y no pronosticando resultados. El objeto de fijar como meta una tasa de crecimiento menor es, según explicó, el de “orientar a las personas de todos los sectores a que centren su labor en acelerar la transformación de la tónica de desarrollo económico y vuelvan este último más sostenible y eficiente”.

La inversión en activos fijos es el motor más importante del crecimiento de China. Como país en desarrollo con una renta anual por habitante de menos de 5.000 dólares, todavía hay un importante margen para que China aumente su capital nacional, pero la tasa de aumento de la inversión es demasiado elevada. La cuestión no es la de si China necesita más inversión, sino la de si su capacidad de absorción puede seguir acogiendo el rápido aumento de la inversión del pasado decenio.

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