Paul Lachine

Chinas Kampf um langsameres Wachstum

PEKING: Bei der Eröffnung der diesjährigen Legislaturperiode des chinesischen Parlaments, des Nationalen Volkskongresses, gab Ministerpräsident Wen Jiabao bekannt, dass das Ziel der Regierung beim jährlichen Wirtschaftswachstum für 2012 bei 7,5% läge. Angesichts der nach wie vor mühsamen Erholung der Weltwirtschaft löste ein derart starker Rückgang der chinesischen Wachstumsrate natürlich weltweite Besorgnis aus.

Doch man muss berücksichtigen, dass Wen damit eine politische Zielsetzung äußerte und keine wirtschaftliche Prognose. Zweck der Zielsetzung einer niedrigeren Wachstumsrate, so erklärte er, sei es, „Menschen in allen Sektoren anzuleiten, ihre Arbeit auf eine Beschleunigung des Wandels der Muster wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung zu konzentrieren und die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung nachhaltiger und effizienter zu machen.“

Investitionen in Anlagevermögen sind in China der wichtigste Wachstumsmotor. Als Entwicklungsland mit einem Pro-Kopf-Einkommen von weniger als 5.000 Dollar hat China nach wie vor viel Spielraum zur Erhöhung seines Kapitalstocks. Doch die Wachstumsrate bei den Investitionen ist zu hoch. Die Frage ist nicht, ob China mehr Investitionen braucht, sondern ob Chinas Aufnahmefähigkeit das hohe Investitionswachstum des letzten Jahrzehnts weiter bewältigen kann.

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