中国大陆对台湾的软实力攻势

发自东京——中国大陆在最近台湾总统大选期间的所作所为显示出该国的领导人已经在过往的失败经历中得到了一些教训。他们认识到大陆可以通过贸易或者提升令台湾民众富裕感来对选民施加影响,而不是像以往历届大选(特别是台独派候选人有望胜选的时候)那样采取威胁性策略——甚至声称要威胁导弹。

事实上,出于对李登辉这位极受欢迎的台独派总统候选人的恐惧,中国人民解放军曾于1996年台湾大选期间向基隆港附近海域发射了导弹。但这一炫耀武力的举动却产生了反效果,李登辉最终赢得了大选。

而1月14日的那场大选则是两岸政权各自实施权力交接的第一幕。随后,中国国家主席胡锦涛和总理温家宝将被中国共产党早已选定的接班人所取带。防止对台出现紧张态势看上去似乎是中国领导人早已计算好的决定,特别是他们开始自己的——或者尚未完全尘埃落定的——权力交接之时。

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