La Cina riduce il surplus commerciale

PECHINO – Per tutto il 2010, la Cina è stata accusata dal Congresso americano (e da molti altri) di “manipolare” la propria valuta al fine di favorire l’export e di preservare il surplus commerciale. Il comportamento della Cina sarebbe stato giudicato come la causa del grande squilibrio globale.

La Cina si è tuttavia rifiutata di accettare tali accuse e ha declinato le ripetute richieste degli Stati Uniti di intraprendere un’ampia rivalutazione della moneta. Il tasso di cambio del renminbi nei confronti del dollaro americano è cresciuto appena del 3% tra giugno 2010 e la fine dell’anno. In base a un’analisi utilizzata da alcuni economisti e politici americani, il basso tasso di apprezzamento valutario, insieme alla crescita dell’export cinese del 31% nel 2010 rispetto al 2009, avrebbe incrementato notevolmente il surplus commerciale della Cina.

In realtà, il surplus commerciale cinese è diminuito del 6,4% nel 2010 rispetto al 2009, che va ad aggiungersi a una flessione del 30% accusata nel 2008, a seguito della crisi finanziaria globale e della successiva recessione. Nel complesso, l’avanzo commerciale cinese è crollato del 36% in termini di dollari americani, e negli ultimi due anni ha registrato una flessione superiore alla metà (53%) in rapporto al Pil. Il coefficiente del surplus delle partite correnti cinesi rispetto al Pil è sceso al 4,6%, nettamente al di sotto del recente picco dell’11,3%, raggiunto nel 2007.

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