收缩中的中国贸易顺差

发自北京——整个2010年,中国都淹没在美国(及其他各国)国会关于“操纵”人民币以抢占出口优势并维持贸易顺差的指责之中。各方都声称中国的所作所为就是当今全球巨额贸易不平衡的根源。

中国对此则不以为然,并一再拒绝了美国对人民币大幅升值的要求。人民币兑美元的汇率在2010年下半年只上升了约3%。照某些美国经济学家和政客的分析方法,低升值率再加上中国2010年出口31%的增长(对比2009年),中国的贸易顺差显然是进一步扩大了。

但实际上,中国2010年的贸易顺差总额较2009年下降了6.4%,更何况之前的2008年已经在经济危机及后续衰退的影响下跌去了30%。总体来说,中国的贸易顺差按绝对美元计算已经下跌了36%,占GDP的比例也在过去两年中下跌了超过一半(53%)。因此中国经常帐户盈余占GDP的比例已经下降到4.6%,显著低于2007年的高峰11.3%了。

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