El reequilibrio de la economía China

NUEVA YORK – La desaceleración de China es la principal amenaza a corto plazo para el crecimiento global. El valor agregado industrial cayó en agosto, el crédito se ha desacelerado drásticamente y los precios de las viviendas están disminuyendo, así como las ventas en este sector, que se han reducido en un 20% en comparación con el año pasado. Dado el estancamiento en la zona del euro y las perspectivas inciertas del Japón, un aterrizaje duro de China podría ser un golpe fuerte para la demanda global.

Se ha prestado mucha atención al crecimiento probable del PIB de este año en relación con la meta del 7.5% fijada por el gobierno. No obstante, la cuestión más importante es si China será capaz de reequilibrar su economía en los próximos 2 o 3 años sin sufrir una crisis financiera o una grave desaceleración económica. Algunos factores que son exclusivos de China hacen que este resultado sea más probable, pero el éxito de ningún modo está asegurado.

Ante la crisis de 2008, China desató un boom crediticio para mantener el crecimiento de la producción y el empleo. El crédito se disparó del 150% del PIB en 2008 al 250% para mediados de 2014. Muchas formas de créditos bancarios paralelos complementaron el rápido crecimiento de los préstamos bancarios.

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