Margaret Scott

A Tempestade Política da China

NOVA DELHI – À medida que altos dirigentes são purgados e que funcionários provinciais aposentados apelam publicamente para que membros do Politburo sejam removidos, tornou-se claro que a China está numa encruzilhada. O futuro da China já não parece ser determinado pela sua economia extremamente bem-sucedida, que transformou o país numa potência mundial numa única geração. Em vez disso, a turva e cada vez mais fracturada política do país está a condicionar agora o seu destino.

Basta olharmos para a actual luta pelo poder, em vésperas das mudanças de liderança planeadas para o outono, ou para os números oficiais que mostram que os protestos rurais têm aumentado à mesma taxa que o PIB da China. A queda súbita de Bo Xilai – e o apelo da Província de Yunnan para que sejam removidos os dois membros do Politburo que lhe eram mais próximos – é só um exemplo das lutas internas sem quartel que estão a ocorrer em Zhongnanhai, o recinto fechado dos líderes em Beijing. Na verdade, diz-se que as querelas intestinas são tão cruéis que houve rumores, negados pelo regime, que o congresso do Partido Comunista, onde um novo presidente e primeiro-ministro devem ser ungidos este outono, pode ser adiado.

A abrupta vilificação de Bo pelo Partido depois de o louvar pela sua liderança em Chongqing alimentou o cinismo público sobre a sua queda orquestrada e pôs a nu o ténue núcleo ideológico da liderança. Se a China pretende preservar os seus ganhos em estatura global, deve evitar uma aterragem política forçada. Neste momento, são concebíveis pelo menos cinco cenários diferentes.

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