Margaret Scott

La Chine dans la tourmente politique

NEW DELHI – Si l’on en juge par la purge des hauts responsables et l’appel public de responsables provinciaux retraités pour que soient démis les membres du Politburo, il est clair que la Chine se trouve à un tournant de son histoire. L’avenir de la Chine ne semble plus tant déterminé par son imposante réussite économique, qui a fait du pays une puissance mondiale en l’espace d’une génération. Son destin semble désormais plutôt déterminé par une vie politique troublée et de plus en plus fracturée.

Il suffit de constater les luttes de pouvoir en cours à la veille des changements de direction planifiés pour cet automne, ou les données officielles démontrant que les mouvements de protestations paysannes croissent au même rythme que le PIB du pays. La chute soudaine de Bo Xilai – et le retrait exigé par la province du Yunnan de deux de ses plus proches collaborateurs, membres du Politburo – ne sont que des exemples des luttes intestines à l’œuvre au Zhongnanhai, le siège du pouvoir à Pékin. En effet, des rumeurs, démenties par le régime, prétendent que les querelles intestines sont d’une telle violence que le Congrès du Parti Communiste au cours duquel doivent être nommés un nouveau président et un nouveau Premier ministre cet automne, pourrait être reporté.

Le parti, en diffamant brusquement Bo, après l’avoir porté aux nues pour son action à Chongqing, a attisé le cynisme populaire autour de sa chute orchestrée et dévoilé la faiblesse idéologique du pouvoir en place. Si la Chine veut préserver son poids sur la scène mondiale, elle doit éviter un atterrissage politique brutal. Pour l’instant, cinq scenarios différents sont envisageables.

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