La Prossima Trasformazione della Cina

HONG KONG – Nel corso di tre decenni di condizioni economiche mondiali favorevoli, la Cina ha creato un sistema integrato di produzione globale senza precedenti per dimensioni e complessità. Ma ora i suoi politici devono affrontare una triplice sfida dovuta alla crisi in corso del debito europeo, alla lenta ripresa degli Stati Uniti, e ad un rallentamento della crescita dell’economia cinese di portata epocale. Tutte e tre le sfide sono interconnesse, e gli errori da parte di una qualsiasi di queste componenti può gettare l’economia mondiale in un’altra recessione.

Per valutare i rischi e le opzioni che si presentano alla Cina ed al mondo intero, si deve comprendere il sistema di produzione cinese del “Made in the World”, che si basa su quattro pilastri distinti ma interdipendenti.

Il primo di questi pilastri, la “fabbrica del mondo” con sede in Cina, è stato creato in gran parte da multinazionali straniere e dai fornitori e subappaltatori loro associati, destinando i processi di lavorazione e montaggio, ad alta intensità di lavoro, alle piccole e medie imprese (PMI) che hanno accesso diretto ai mercati mondiali attraverso una complessa rete di contatti. Con una partenza modesta in aree costiere ed in zone economiche speciali, la catena di fornitura della “fabbrica del mondo” si è diffuso in tutta la Cina, producendo qualsiasi cosa, dai peluche agli iPad.

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