Příští transformace Číny

HONGKONG – Během tří desetiletí příznivých globálních ekonomických podmínek vytvořila Čína integrovaný systém globální produkce, jehož rozsah a složitost neměly na světě obdoby. Dnes se však musí čínští politici potýkat s trojí výzvou v podobě rozvíjející se dluhové krize v Evropě, pomalého zotavení ve Spojených státech a dlouhodobého zpomalování růstu čínské ekonomiky. Všechny tři problémy jsou vzájemně propojené a chyby kterékoliv z dotčených stran by mohly uvrhnout globální ekonomiku do další recese.

Abychom mohli hodnotit rizika a možnosti pro Čínu a svět, musíme pochopit čínský výrobní systém „Made in the World“, který stojí na čtyřech výrazných, ale vzájemně na sobě závislých pilířích.

První z těchto pilířů, totiž čínskou „světovou továrnu“, vytvořily převážně zahraniční nadnárodní korporace a na ně napojení dodavatelé a subdodavatelé, kdy zpracovatelské a montážní procesy provádějí malé a střední firmy, které mají prostřednictvím složité sítě kontraktů přímý přístup na globální trhy. Tato „světová továrna“ začínala skromně v pobřežních oblastech a zvláštních ekonomických zónách, ale postupně se její nabídkový řetězec rozšířil do celé Číny a začal vyrábět všechno možné, od plyšových zvířátek až po iPady.

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