中国的下一次转型

香港—三十年来,在有利的全球经济环境中,中国创造了规模和复杂程度前所未有的一体化全球制造体系。但是,如今,中国决策者必须应对欧债危机深化、美国复苏缓慢以及中国经济增长显著放缓的三重挑战。这三重挑战是相互关联的,不论在哪个方面出了错,都会将全球经济拖入新的衰退。

为了很好地评估中国和世界所面临的风险和抉择,我们必须理解中国的“世界制造”生产体系,该体系建立在四个大不相同但互相依赖的支柱上。

第一大支柱是设在中国的“世界工厂”,它们大多由外国跨国公司及其相关供应商和转包商开设,通过复杂契约关系网直接面向全球市场的中小企业承担了劳动密集型处理和组装业务。“世界工厂”供应链起步很低,一开始均位于沿海地区和经济特区,如今已遍布中国,生产从动物填充标本到iPad的一切东西。

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