La nueva política monetaria de China

CAMBRIDGE – El Gobierno de China puede estar a punto de dejar que el tipo de cambio renminbi-dólar aumente más rápidamente en los próximos meses que durante el año pasado. En realidad, el tipo de cambio quedó congelado durante la crisis financiera, pero se ha permitido que aumente desde el verano de 2010. En los doce últimos meses, el renminbi se revalorizó un seis por ciento frente al dólar, su divisa de referencia.

Un aumento más rápido del tipo de cambio renminbi-dólar reduciría las exportaciones de China y aumentaría sus importaciones. También permitiría a otros países asiáticos dejar que subieran sus divisas o aumentasen sus exportaciones a expensas de los productores chinos, cosa que podría gustar a los vecinos de China, pero no a los productores chinos. Entonces, ¿por qué podrían las autoridades chinas permitir deliberadamente que el renminbi se revalorizara más rápidamente?

Hay dos razones fundamentales por las que el Gobierno chino podría optar por esa política: reducir el riesgo de su cartera y contener la inflación interna.

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