Chinas neue Währungspolitik

CAMBRIDGE – Die chinesische Regierung wird den Kurs des Renminbi gegenüber dem Dollar in den kommenden Monaten möglicherweise schneller steigen lassen, als sie es im Verlauf des vergangenen Jahres getan hat. In der Finanzkrise war der Wechselkurs sogar eingefroren worden, wurde aber seit Sommer 2010 wieder gelockert. In den vergangenen 12 Monaten hat der Renminbi gegenüber seiner Referenzwährung Dollar um 6% zugelegt.

Eine raschere Aufwertung des Renminbi gegenüber dem Dollar würde Chinas Exporte schrumpfen und seine Importe steigen lassen. Zudem könnten andere asiatische Länder den Kurs ihrer Währungen steigen lassen oder ihre Exporte zulasten chinesischer Produzenten ausweiten. Chinas Nachbarn könnte das gefallen, bei chinesischen Produzenten hingegen würde es keinen Anklang finden. Warum also sollten chinesische Behörden eine raschere Aufwertung des Renminbi bewusst zulassen?

Es gibt zwei wesentliche Gründe, warum die chinesische Regierung sich für eine solche Politik entscheiden könnte: eine Verringerung der Risiken in ihrem Portfolio und eine Eindämmung der Binneninflation.

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