La nouvelle politique monétaire de la Chine

CAMBRIDGE – Le gouvernement chinois pourrait s’apprêter à laisser le renminbi se renforcer plus rapidement dans les mois à venir qu’il ne l’a fait au cours de l’année passée. En fait, le taux de change a été gelé pendant la crise financière, mais les autorités chinoises l’ont laissé progresser à partir de l’été 2010. Au cours des 12 derniers mois, le renminbi a gagné 6 pour cent sur le dollar, sa monnaie de référence.

Une appréciation rapide du renminbi face au dollar réduira les exportations chinoises et encouragera ses importations. Elle permettrait également à d’autres pays asiatiques de laisser leur monnaie s’apprécier ou d’accroître leurs exportations au détriment des producteurs chinois. Cette tendance pourrait bien plaire aux pays voisins de la Chine, mais sûrement pas aux fabricants chinois. Pourquoi donc les autorités chinoises voudraient-elles délibérément laisser la valeur du renminbi augmenter rapidement ?

Il existe deux raisons fondamentales pour lesquelles le gouvernement chinois pourrait choisir de mettre en œuvre une telle politique : réduire les risques posés par ses investissements de portefeuille et contenir l’inflation.

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