Pedro Molina

L’atterraggio morbido della Cina

NEW HAVEN – L’economia cinese sta rallentando. Non è una sorpresa dal momento che si tratta di un’economia trainata dall’export e legata a doppio filo alla vacillante domanda globale. Ma il rallentamento cinese potrebbe risultare al contempo gestibile e ben accetto. I timori di un atterraggio duro sono eccessivi.

A dire il vero, a indebolirsi sono i dati economici. Il “Purchasing Managers Index” sta ora toccando la pericolosa soglia “50”, da tempo associata al punto di rottura tra espansione e contrazione. Simili trend al ribasso si evidenziano in una serie di indicatori guida, che riguardano le aspettative dei consumatori, l’offerta di denaro e il mercato azionario, ma anche la produzione di acciaio, le vendite industriali e l’avvio di nuovi cantieri.

Ma non siamo nel 2008. Allora, il commercio globale collassava e presagiva una flessione del 10,7% nel volume degli scambi commerciali per il 2009 – la peggiore contrazione annua dagli anni Trenta. Le performance cinesi sul fronte dell’export oscillavano da una crescita annua del 26% evidenziata a luglio del 2008 a una contrazione del 27% registrata a febbraio del 2009. Di conseguenza, la crescita del Pil segnava un rallentamento al ritmo di due cifre – in pratica una battuta d’arresto secondo gli standard cinesi; e oltre 20 milioni di lavoratori migranti interni persero il lavoro nella provincia di Guangdong dedita all’export. Alla fine del 2008 la Cina si trovava a fare i conti l’“equivalente funzionale” di una vera e propria recessione.

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