La spirale inflativa cinese

PECHINO – Anche se le crisi debitorie dell’Europa e degli Stati Uniti incombono come un macigno e la ripresa economica globale vacilla, l’inflazione si sta nuovamente facendo sentire in tutto il mondo. In effetti, le economie emergenti stanno per attraversare un forte periodo inflativo, che comporterà terribili conseguenze politiche.

L’indice dei prezzi al consumo cinese (CPI) è schizzato al 6,4% su base annua nel mese di giugno, raggiungendo il picco massimo rispetto a luglio 2008. In uno scenario globale in cui la ripresa continua a vacillare, crescono notevolmente i timori di un possibile impatto negativo sull’economia cinese, causato dalla stretta monetaria tesa a contenere l’inflazione.

In Cina, i prezzi alimentari rappresentano all’incirca un terzo del paniere CPI, di cui un’ampia fetta occupata dalla carne suina. Non a caso il CPI viene spesso chiamato “indice del consumo di maiale”. A giugno, i prezzi della carne suina sono cresciuti del 57% su base annua, incidendo di quasi due punti percentuali sul generale tasso di inflazione. Sfortunatamente, la politica macroeconomica non può fare molto per il “ciclo della produzione suina” e di solito non viene influenzata da tale fenomeno.

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