La increíble economía menguante de China

ITHACA – Hace poco el Banco Mundial anunció que las economías china e india son un 40% más pequeñas que lo se había estimado anteriormente. Puesto que se trata de las economías de gran tamaño de mayor crecimiento, la revisión del Banco ha recortado medio punto porcentual al crecimiento mundial de los últimos 5 años, según el FMI.

Las nuevas cifras motivaron un acalorado debate, y han traído a juego a los aficionados a las teorías de la conspiración. Pero cuando pase la tormenta, la nueva información puede resultar siendo menos revolucionaria de lo que alguna gente cree. También puede que tenga el beneficio no intencional de hacer que un debate clave sobre políticas se encamine en una dirección más productiva.

Los nuevos datos se basan en mejores estimaciones de paridad de poder de compra (PPC). La idea básica es que, al comparar los ingresos de los distintos países, se debería tomar en consideración las variaciones en el poder de compra. Los tipos de cambio del mercado no son un buen indicador de estas diferencias, ya que pueden fluctuar por otras razones.

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