Chinas erstaunliche schrumpfende Wirtschaft

ITHACA, NY: Die Weltbank hat kürzlich bekannt gegeben, dass die Volkswirtschaften Chinas und Indiens um 40% kleiner seien als bisher angenommen. Da es sich bei den beiden um die am schnellsten wachsenden großen Volkswirtschaften handelt, hat die Korrektur der Bank laut IWF das weltweite Wirtschaftswachstum der letzten fünf Jahre um einen halben Prozentpunkt beschnitten.

Die neuen Zahlen haben einen Feuersturm der Diskussionen eröffnet und Verschwörungstheoretikern Tür und Tor geöffnet. Aber wenn sich der Staub gesetzt hat, sind die neuen Daten vielleicht weniger revolutionär, als manche glauben. Sie könnten zudem den unbeabsichtigten Vorteil haben, einer zentralen Politikdebatte eine produktivere Richtung zu geben.

Die neuen Daten basieren auf verbesserten Schätzwerten der Kaufkraftparität (KPP). Die grundlegende Idee ist, dass man beim Vergleich der Einkommen unterschiedlicher Länder Abweichungen in der Kaufkraft berücksichtigen sollte. Die Marktwechselkurse sind kein guter Indikator für diese Unterschiede, da sie aus anderen Gründen schwanken können.

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