中国令人难以置信的经济规模收缩

伊萨卡,纽约——世界银行最近宣布中国和印度的经济规模要在以前预测的基础上收缩40%。因为中国和印度都是快速增长的经济大国,按照国际货币基金组织的预测,世界银行的这次修正使得过去5年来世界经济的增长降低了半个百分点之多。

新数据引发了大规模的争论,也致使阴谋理论家最终暴露在阳光之下。但当这一切尘埃落定之后,新数据或许并没有某些人认为的那样具有革命性的意义。它们也有可能起到意想不到的效果,那就是使得一场关键性的政策辩论朝着更有效率的方向发展。

新数据的基础是修改后的购买力平价预测。它所包含的基本理念是:在不同国家间比较收入的时候,购买力的差异应该纳入人们考虑的范畴。市场汇率并不能准确地反应购买力的差异,因为其他原因也可能导致市场汇率产生波动。

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