Paul Lachine

Die globalen Auswirkungen sinkender Rohstoffpreise

NEW YORK – Der jahrzehntelange Boom der Rohstoffpreise ist zu Ende und das hat gravierende Folgen für das weltweite BIP-Wachstum. Obwohl sich wirtschaftliche Entwicklungen nicht immer nach dem exakt gleichen Muster wiederholen, trübt das Ende der seit Beginn des neuen Jahrtausends anhaltenden Aufwärtsphase des Rohstoff-Superzyklus die Aussichten der Entwicklungsländer, weiterhin rasch zum Einkommensniveau der Industrieländer aufzuschließen.

Von Juli 2012 bis Juli 2013 fiel der  Economist-Rohstoffpreisindex in Dollar um 16,5 Prozent (22,4 Prozent in Euro), wobei die Metallpreise seit ihrem Spitzenwert Anfang 2011 über mehr als zwei Jahre sanken. Obwohl sich die Nahrungsmittelpreise dem Trend anfangs stärker widersetzten, sind sie im letzten Jahr dramatischer gesunken als die Preise für andere Rohstoffe. Lediglich die Ölpreise bleiben hoch (wenngleich volatil), wobei die Gründe dafür zweifellos auch in den  komplexen politischen Ereignisse im Nahen Osten zu finden sind.

Historisch gesehen ist diese Entwicklung keine Überraschung, wie unsere Forschungen über Rohstoff-Superzyklen zeigen. Seit dem späten 19. Jahrhundert durchliefen die Rohstoffpreise drei langfristige Zyklen sowie die Aufwärtsphase eines vierten Zyklus, der hauptsächlich auf die Veränderungen der globalen Nachfrage zurückzuführen ist. Die ersten beiden Zyklen dauerten relativ lang (fast vier Jahrzehnte), der dritte gestaltete sich jedoch kürzer (28 Jahre).

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